Youth Vote Update — October 30th
By NextGen America Executive Director, Ben Wessel
CHECK. THIS. OUT.
We just got back our final October battleground youth poll (AKA the “Youth Vote Vibe Check”) and it’s got some eye-popping news. 80% of young voters in battleground states say they are “definitely” voting in this election or have already voted. It’s a 10-point jump from July, (when 70% reported they would “definitely” cast a ballot) and it’s a HUGE deal, especially considering that another 11% report they will “probably” cast a ballot. We’re on our way to record youth vote turnout.
The poll also shows Biden commanding a 32-point lead (63% to 31%) over Trump among likely young voters. Bottomline: Young people are showing up with Obama ’08-style intensity.
EARLY VOTE UPDATE
Of course, we’re already seeing this in the early vote. Many have noted that a youth surge is powering record turnout in Texas. But that’s not the only state where we’re seeing something major happening. Check the latest from our friends at CIRCLE: Early votes cast in 2020 are approaching the TOTAL numbers of 2016 votes in several states. Youth vote share of the early vote is up across the board! (HUMBLE BRAG: pay special attention to NextGen states like Virginia, North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, Florida, Michigan, and Maine!!!)
NEXTGEN’S IMPACT
Of the more than nine million young people NextGen is targeting in key states, at least two million have already voted. In total, more than eight million people under the age of 30 have voted. 2.3 million are first-time voters, a larger number than the population of 15 U.S. states.
And remember, young people tend to vote late. With four days remaining until E-Day, we’re starting to see that late surge reflected in the data. This graph from North Carolina shows that 52% of absentee ballots cast have come from Gen Z, millennial or Gen X voters. As we turn the calendar over into November, we can expect young voter numbers to continue trending upward.
The youth vote is so hot right now, even Fox News wants in on the coverage. For more reading, check out this Vox piece on young Latinx voters in Arizona, which features two of our very own organizers.
Feeling pumped? Time is winding down until the election, but there’s still plenty left to help GOTV. Sign up right here.
Let’s go win,
Ben
