Youth Vote Update — November 2nd

By NextGen America Executive Director, Ben Wessel

NextGen had a HUGE weekend of voter contact, and we’re still going strong. You know the drill: Sign up here to volunteer.

FLORIDA UPDATE

Yesterday was the last day of Early Vote in Florida, and with election projections showing Florida as a possible early decider of the presidential race, here’s a breakdown of where things stand with young voters in the Sunshine State:

• 193,122 “low turnout” progressives targeted by NextGen voted early. That’s nearly the size of the combined enrollments at UF, Florida State, University of Central Florida, and University of South Florida. Again, these are folks that betting markets probably would assume wouldn’t vote at all, so the fact that so many voted early is very good news.
• In total, more than 750,000 of our young progressive targets have already voted. In other words, about 35% of our entire target audience has shown up before Election Day, and we know tomorrow’s turnout will still be seismic (and mail ballots keep coming in too!!)
• According to CIRCLE, an astounding 84% of all young Floridians who requested mail ballots have already had them sent in and counted. That number will go up as mail comes in today and tomorrow too.
• Biden is faring 14 points better than Clinton with young Floridians, per NYT/Siena poll

MORE YOUTH VOTE NUGGETS

• The Maine youth vote is going to replace Susan Collins with Sara Gideon: “Early turnout among voters under age 30 in Maine is more than double 2016 levels, according to TargetSmart. That surge is more likely to favor Democrats.”
• In Pennsylvania, nearly 70% of voters under 35 who requested mail ballots have returned them, which is close to even with the return rate for older voters. PA election officials won’t start counting mail ballots until tomorrow, and the final tally will include at least half a million ballots cast by young people. Every vote counts, regardless of what Donald Trump says.
• NextGen Arizona organizer Jacob Martinez speaking truth in this CNN piece: “Covid has been a big factor in getting people even more energized than they already were. Arizona was the country’s hotspot for a good amount of time and even now we are on the rise again … At this point, everyone knows someone that has died (of Covid). It speaks to the ineffectiveness of Trump.”
• Click here for an EXCELLENT RESOURCE from our friends at CIRCLE, which includes a national and state-by-state look at the youth share of the electorate, young voter turnout broken down by race and gender, races to watch, and more.

One more day,

Ben